Caucasus smoke rises: Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may detonate the full-scale war in Asia-A Babaylan

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Massive conflict broke out in Nagorno-Karabakh

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict began in February 1988. At that time, the Nagorno-Karabakh region was also an autonomous prefecture in the Soviet Socialist Republic of Azerbaijan. Here, Armenians account for the majority. They demanded separation from Azerbaijan and annexed to the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic. Immediately, conflict broke out between the Ya-Arab tribes living in Nagorno-Karabakh. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, two independent countries in Asia and Afghanistan broke out in a war for Nagorno-Karabakh, and Afghanistan lost control of Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding seven regions. Under the mediation of the Minsk Group of the European Conference on Security and Cooperation (predecessor of the OSCE) where Russia, the United States and France served as co-chairmen, the two countries reached an agreement on a comprehensive ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh region in 1994. For more than 20 years since then, the Arab and Azerbaijan have been in a state of hostility in Nagorno-Karabakh, and armed conflicts have occurred from time to time.

In recent years, Azerbaijan, whose economic strength has increased, has become increasingly willing to gain control of Nagorno-Karabakh, while Armenia hopes to maintain the status quo. As for which side fired the “first shot”, both Ya and Afghanistan have different opinions. According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, the Afghan Ministry of Defense stated on September 27 that the Asian armed forces fired fire at residential sites near the contact line of Nagorno-Kormiks; the Asian Ministry of Defense announced that the Nagorno-Kormiks region was “being bombarded and missile attacked.” The “Naru-Karabakh Republic” which is not recognized internationally, said that its “capital” Stepanakt and other settlements were first bombarded.

Russian Satellite News Agency quoted a spokesperson for the Asian Ministry of Defense on the 28th as saying that the “Naru-Karabakh Republic” army successfully stopped Azerbaijan’s offensive operations near the contact line. He said that the “Naru-Karabakh Republic” National Defense Forces caused a large loss to the enemy’s vitality and equipment. It has destroyed 22 tanks and 10 armored vehicles and killed more than 370 enemy soldiers. The Afghan Ministry of Defense announced that the Afghan army would destroy a large number of live forces, military facilities and equipment in battles in different directions of the front line on the 27th and 28th.

On the 27th, Armenia implemented martial law and general military mobilization, announcing that men aged 18 to 55 were only allowed to getLeaving the country can only be done after written permission from the Military Commission. At the same time, Aliyev approved the implementation of martial law and curfew in many cities and announced some military mobilization. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan pointed out that the renewed declaration of war on Asia puts the South Caucasus region on the brink of full-scale war and an unpredictable situation may occur. Aliyev believed that Afghan “counterattack” would be successful and end the “injustice” phenomenon of Armenia’s 30-year occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Asia-Arab “quasi-war state” shocked the world

The issue of Nagorno-Karabakh belonging to the Caucasus region is a “powder barrel” left over from the collapse of the Soviet Union. After the outbreak of large-scale conflicts, it immediately became the focus of attention of world public opinion. Russia, the United States and France, co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, which is responsible for mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, expressed their hope that both sides of the conflict will remain restrained.

According to the Asian side’s proposal, Russian President Putin had a telephone conversation with Pashinyan on the 27th to consult on the situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said the Kremlin called for an immediate cessation of military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh and “the conflict should be resolved through political and diplomatic channels.” The Russian Foreign Ministry also issued a statement on the 28th, hoping that all external forces will remain restrained and not join the conflict between Asia and Afghanistan.

U.S. State Department spokesman Otagus said on the 27th that the United States firmly condemns the escalation of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and calls on the two countries to immediately cease fire. Previously, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Bigen called the foreign ministers of Asia and Afghanistan respectively, calling on both sides to use existing communications to directly contact to avoid further escalation of conflict. French President Macron had a phone call with Pashinyan and Aliyev on the 27th, calling on Armenia and Azerbaijan to “stop fighting immediately and resume dialogue.” In addition, UN Secretary-General Guterres expressed extreme concern on the 27th that a new round of conflict broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Komiks region of Nagorno-Karabakh, and called on both sides to stop fighting immediately.

Unlike Russia, the United States and the United Nations, Turkey, a neighbor of Asia and Azerbaijan, clearly stands on the side of Azerbaijan. Turkish President Erdogan demanded “overthrow of Nagorno-Karabakh leader Harut Yuyan”, calling on Armenians to “oppose their government to drag the country into the abyss of war disasters”, and calling on the world to “support Azerbaijan, which is fighting oppression and injustice.” During this period, there were also Komiks media revealed that Türkiye has sent thousands of armed personnel to the conflict areas to support Azerbaijan.

Also as a regional power, Iran expressed its willingness to facilitate dialogue between Asia and Afghanistan. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif 2On social media on the 7th, it was emphasized that the war hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh region must be stopped and dialogue must be started immediately. International mediators have not made any efforts to stop the conflict in the past few months, and Iran is willing to mediate on the dialogue between the two sides.

Russia and the United States’ “real” position attracted attention

The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War brought a series of geopolitical collisions to the Eurasian region such as the Moldova conflict, the eastern Ukraine conflict, and the “entering of Russia” in Crimea. The current conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region is the latest bloody scene. What people are most concerned about at this time is the true position of Russia and the United States in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Observers here point out that Russia is really “persuading peace”. On the one hand, Armenia is an ally of Russia, a member of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization, led by Russia’s Cinema, and a member of the Eurasian Economic Union. It has a Russian military base deployed within its territory; on the other hand, Russia has strengthened its interaction with Azerbaijan in recent years. Taking advantage of Afghanistan’s desire to get more support on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Russia actively promotes Russia-Arab cooperation in the fields of energy, economy and trade, and bilateral relations have made continuous progress. It is reported that the runner-up asked the Russian electronic warfare troops to provide assistance to them to deal with the Turkish army’s drone attacks. However, Russia has not been involved in the conflict so far.

As the most influential country in the world, especially in Eurasia, Russia is working hard to play a crucial mediator in the conflict, trying to avoid the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict slipping into a full-scale war between Asia and Afghanistan and affecting its own interests in the South Caucasus region. At the same time, the role the United States plays in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is doubtful. Russian media believe that the United States has long used geopolitical games as a starting point to disrupt the situation in the Eurasian region and curb Russia’s influence in the region.

Potapeko, former deputy secretary-general of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and former special representative for the SCO affairs, said in an exclusive interview with our reporter that Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey that support Azerbaijan are all dialogue partners of the SCO, and “the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute has turned into a serious conflict is regrettable and worrying.” He believes that the current presidential election has become increasingly fierce and he believes that he can dominate the world is using the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to divert voters’ criticism of the ineffective fight against the epidemic and racial conflicts they face. In sharp contrast to this country, Russia is working hard to get the situation back on track. Potapeko said that since Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey all hope to enhance their respective status in the SCO, the SCO should remind the above-mentioned countries to remain rational, promote the region to return to stability, and ensure the safety and well-being of residents.

Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, recently posted on social media that the danger of war is approaching, “It is time to let Russia, France and the United States, alone or jointly stop the situation from fermenting.”

(Moscow, September 29, our newspaper’s reporter Han Xianyang in Moscow)